Omdia Sees Middle East Smartphone Market Falling 22% in 2026 as ASPs Hit $450

5 articles · Updated · Informa PLC · May 21

Omdia expects Middle East smartphone shipments to drop 22% in 2026 after the market already fell 6% year over year to 11 million units in the first quarter.
Record pricing is a key drag: regional smartphone ASPs rose 15% to $450 as global memory costs climbed, while weaker retail sell-through and cautious consumers curbed replacement demand.
Geopolitical tension added pressure late in the quarter by disrupting supply chains and hurting confidence, with Iraq's shipments down 18% amid currency weakness and higher electronics import taxes.
Saudi Arabia, the region's largest market, slipped 3%, while the UAE grew 1% on resilient premium demand; Omdia says even affluent Gulf markets will likely see volume declines later this year.
Samsung held the top spot with a 34% share, HONOR jumped 73% to become No. 2 for the first time, and vendors are expected to lean harder on premium launches, financing and trade-ins.

Amid a shipping crisis and soaring prices, how did one phone brand achieve explosive 73% growth in the Middle East?

With the U.S.-Iran conflict crippling the budget phone market, are premium brands the only ones that can survive?