US Q2 Growth Nowcast Holds at 2.4% as Fed Weighs Rate Hikes on 3.8% CPI

4 articles · Updated · Investing.com · May 21

CapitalSpectator’s median nowcast put US real Q2 GDP growth at 2.4%, up from 2.2% on May 11 and above Q1’s 2.0% pace.
That resilience has held despite a Middle East energy shock, with RBC saying payrolls, industrial production and retail sales are accelerating while unemployment remains steady.
Fed minutes showed a majority of officials discussed possible rate hikes if the Iran war keeps inflation elevated, with policy firming likely if price growth stays persistently above 2%.
April headline CPI rose 3.8% from a year earlier — a three-year high — and a Philadelphia Fed survey projected inflation could briefly hit 6.0% in Q2.
With Gulf energy exports still blocked and no near-term resolution in sight, inflation risks remain the main threat to growth even as recession signals are not yet flashing red.

Can the new Fed Chair's rate hikes stop war-driven inflation, or will they only succeed in triggering a domestic recession?

With Iran demanding payments in yuan, is this energy crisis the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar's supremacy?

Beyond oil, how does one blocked strait now threaten to spark a global food crisis and paralyze manufacturing supply chains?