Prediction Markets Stage 150-Year Comeback, Evolving Beyond Political Betting
Updated
Updated · NPR · May 21
Prediction Markets Stage 150-Year Comeback, Evolving Beyond Political Betting
10 articles · Updated · NPR · May 21
Prediction markets have reemerged after roughly 150 years, with users now wagering on outcomes ranging from the war in Iran to the Super Bowl.
That revival traces back to early betting on popes and presidents, which established the basic idea that markets could aggregate expectations about future events.
The format later influenced experiments such as the early-2000s Policy Analysis Market—dubbed a “terrorism market” by critics—showing both the reach and controversy of the model.
Those early academic and policy efforts helped shape today’s industry, which has expanded prediction markets from historical political betting into a broader commercial category.
Are prediction markets the future of forecasting or just a high-stakes, unregulated casino?
As soldiers trade on military secrets, can prediction markets and national security coexist?