Officials Warn Trump May Leave Iran War Unresolved as Gaza Peace Plan Stalls 2 Years In
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · May 17
Officials Warn Trump May Leave Iran War Unresolved as Gaza Peace Plan Stalls 2 Years In
7 articles · Updated · POLITICO · May 17
Middle Eastern and other foreign officials fear Trump could settle for an indefinite Iran ceasefire without a durable deal on Tehran’s nuclear program, missiles and proxy militias, leaving the region in a prolonged “no peace, no war” limbo.
A 12-day Israel-Iran conflict that Trump says he ended has instead fed concern that Washington entered war ill-prepared, then lacked the diplomatic depth to convert battlefield pressure into a lasting settlement.
Trump’s narrow decision-making, cuts to conflict-resolution staff and still-unfilled ambassador posts have weakened the U.S. capacity needed to sustain complex negotiations, officials and former advisers say.
Gaza shows the same pattern: a ceasefire announced last October still holds, but the broader framework has yielded little progress as Hamas refuses to disarm, a stabilization force has not materialized and civilians remain trapped in worsening conditions.
Administration allies argue many talks are still progressing less than 2 years into Trump’s term, but diplomats say speed and ambiguity without sustained follow-through risk pushing Iran, Gaza and other crises onto his successor.
As U.S. peacemaking capacity is dismantled, how can ceasefires in Gaza and Iran translate into lasting, comprehensive peace agreements?
Iran now controls the world's most vital oil chokepoint. What is the strategy to restore freedom of navigation and stabilize markets?
Does the 'surgical' approach in the Middle East weaken U.S. deterrence against China by creating a strategic overextension of resources?
Fragile Ceasefires, Rising Risks: How the U.S.-Iran and Gaza Deadlocks Are Shaping the World in 2026
Overview
As of May 2026, the world faces two major unresolved conflicts: the U.S.-Iran standoff and the fragile Gaza peace plan. Both are stuck in a stalemate, with core issues left unsettled and a constant risk of renewed violence. Despite diplomatic efforts and ceasefires, negotiations have failed to bring lasting solutions, making the situation highly unstable. The U.S.-Iran conflict remains tense, with mixed signals from leaders and threats of escalation, while the Gaza ceasefire is shaky due to disagreements over disarmament and governance. These ongoing deadlocks highlight the immediate danger of further conflict in both regions.