ADNOC Says Full Hormuz Oil Flows Won't Return Before 2027 as Iran Chokes 20% of Supply
Updated
Updated · Reuters · May 21
ADNOC Says Full Hormuz Oil Flows Won't Return Before 2027 as Iran Chokes 20% of Supply
8 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 21
Q1 or Q2 2027 is the earliest full oil traffic could resume through the Strait of Hormuz, ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said, adding that even an immediate end to the conflict would restore only 80% of prewar flows after at least four months.
Iran’s de facto blockade—launched after the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran—has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil supply, with Tehran using checkpoints, vessel vetting and fees while extending pressure to the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coast.
30% higher fuel prices, 50% costlier fertiliser and airfares up by a quarter show how the disruption is feeding inflation and recession fears; Jaber said nearly 80 countries have already taken emergency economic measures.
Jaber called the blockade a dangerous precedent for freedom of navigation and urged renewed investment to strengthen energy supply chains, in one of the bleakest industry timelines yet for a return to normal.
Has Iran's Hormuz blockade revealed the limits of U.S. power in securing global trade routes?
With oil flow restricted until 2027, is a global recession now inevitable?
As Iran charges tolls for passage, is this the new reality for global maritime chokepoints?
Global Oil Shock: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Blockade, UAE’s OPEC Exit, and the New Energy Order
Overview
The report details how a US-Israeli assault against Iran triggered a severe crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran responding by expanding its definition of the Strait to include the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coastline. This move allowed Iran to extend its blockade, effectively holding the world’s most important waterway hostage and severely impacting global freedom of navigation. The escalating situation included an attack on the United Arab Emirates, pushing the United States and Iran to the brink of war. These developments have caused immediate shocks to global oil supplies and heightened risks for international energy trade.