Pacific Kelvin Wave Carries 7.5C Warm Anomaly, Raising Super El Niño Risk
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · May 20
Pacific Kelvin Wave Carries 7.5C Warm Anomaly, Raising Super El Niño Risk
6 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · May 20
A 9,000-mile Kelvin wave is moving through the Pacific, carrying deep-ocean water up to 7.5 degrees Celsius above average in what the report describes as record warmth.
That subsurface heat matters because the strength of a coming El Niño depends heavily on how much unusually warm water is stored hundreds of feet below the ocean surface.
The ocean’s slow rate of warming and cooling makes a 7.5C anomaly especially significant, suggesting a large reservoir of heat that could later surface and intensify El Niño conditions.
If that warm pool continues eastward and reaches the surface, it may help turn this year’s El Niño into a super El Niño with broader global weather impacts.
Could this Pacific 'heat train' trigger a domino effect, disrupting critical ocean currents worldwide?
Are we witnessing the first major release of decades of heat stored deep in the world's oceans?
Is this record ocean heat fueling a temporary super El Niño, or a permanent shift in our climate system?
The Coming 2026 Super El Niño: Global Impacts, Scientific Insights, and Policy Imperatives
Overview
A Super El Niño event is unequivocally forecast for the 2026/2027 period, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region expected to exceed +2°C above average. This critical global alert signals that the event will surpass the Super El Niño threshold, beginning to manifest in spring 2026 and reaching peak intensity in the following winter. The emergence of another Super El Niño so soon after the 2015/16 event highlights a concerning trend, raising the potential for widespread and severe climatic disruptions worldwide. Immediate attention and preparedness are essential to address these unprecedented risks.