El Niño Could Rank Among Strongest on Record, Raising Risks Across 2026
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 21
El Niño Could Rank Among Strongest on Record, Raising Risks Across 2026
6 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 21
Researchers say a new El Niño is taking shape and could become one of the strongest ever recorded, setting up major disruptions to global weather in 2026 if forecasts hold.
Past powerful El Niño episodes have driven severe droughts, heat waves and disease outbreaks; the 1877-78 event helped fuel famine that killed millions across the tropics.
Modern monitoring, early-warning systems, advanced agriculture and grain reserves make large-scale famine unlikely, but experts say the world remains exposed to major shocks.
That vulnerability is heightened by fertilizer shortages tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy costs from wars involving Ukraine and Iran, and cuts in foreign aid to poorer countries.
With El Niño and a global trade crisis converging, are we facing an unavoidable systemic collapse?
As global crises collide, can technology and resilient supply chains prevent a worldwide humanitarian disaster?
This El Niño could breach the 1.5°C climate limit. What happens to our weather patterns forever after?
The Looming 2026 Super El Niño: Climate Extremes, Economic Volatility, and the Race for Resilience
Overview
As of May 2026, a rapidly developing El Niño event is set to reshape global weather patterns, with NOAA forecasting an 82% chance of its firm establishment between May and July. This follows the transition from a weak La Niña to neutral conditions, paving the way for a warming El Niño episode later in the year. The intensification is driven by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave, which has recently gained significant energy, fueling a powerful subsurface heat pulse. These developments signal the imminent arrival of a potentially unprecedented El Niño, with far-reaching impacts on climate, economies, and societies worldwide.