Arabica Coffee Falls Over 20% in 2026 as Record Brazil Crop Outlook Swells Supply
Updated
Updated · XTB · May 21
Arabica Coffee Falls Over 20% in 2026 as Record Brazil Crop Outlook Swells Supply
7 articles · Updated · XTB · May 21
Arabica futures slid to their lowest since autumn 2024, with the market increasingly pricing in a record Brazilian harvest that could rebuild depleted global inventories.
Ecom Group said Brazil’s crop could reach a record high, reinforcing a shift away from tight-supply fears toward expectations of surplus and further price pressure.
CFTC data for May 12 showed funds turning more bearish: Managed Money cut 895 long contracts and added 3,578 shorts, while open interest rose by 6,204 contracts to 182,249.
Commercial hedgers stayed heavily net short at about 25,600 contracts, though rising longs and fewer shorts suggest producers are no longer adding downside hedges as aggressively.
Brazil weather remains the main near-term risk—rain has not yet materially disrupted harvesting, but heavier showers and 2027 El Niño concerns could quickly revive supply fears.
With coffee futures falling, why does the physical market hint at a looming supply squeeze?
Are speculators betting on a coffee price crash ignoring the risk of a weather-fueled rally?
Can Brazil's record harvest quench the world's thirst as China's coffee addiction grows?