SEC Seeks Input on Prediction-Market ETFs as Polymarket Moves to List Parlays by May 21
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · May 20
SEC Seeks Input on Prediction-Market ETFs as Polymarket Moves to List Parlays by May 21
7 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · May 20
Paul Atkins said the SEC has told staff to seek public input on how it should handle event-contract ETFs, after fund sponsors delayed several novel products while the agency reviews their implications.
The move comes as prediction markets expand quickly: Polymarket filed a self-certification with the CFTC to list sports parlays—called combinatorial outcome contracts—no earlier than May 21.
Under Polymarket’s filing, every leg of a combined contract must resolve correctly for the payout to reach $1; one failed leg sends the contract to $0.
That growth has intensified a jurisdiction fight, with state regulators and gambling companies arguing sports prediction markets encroach on state-controlled betting, while the CFTC says federal commodities law governs them.
Congress and the courts are already scrutinizing the sector, and the Supreme Court is widely expected to weigh in as regulators confront whether prediction markets are securities, derivatives or gambling products.
With courts divided, will the Supreme Court define prediction markets as finance or gambling?
Can traditional sportsbooks survive against the tax-advantaged model of prediction markets?
As bets on war and politics rise, can regulators truly stop insider trading?