Oregon Lifts Revenue Forecast by $345 Million as Tax Decoupling Offsets U.S. Slowdown
Updated
Updated · KATU · May 20
Oregon Lifts Revenue Forecast by $345 Million as Tax Decoupling Offsets U.S. Slowdown
6 articles · Updated · KATU · May 20
$345 million in added projected revenue lifted Oregon’s latest forecast, even as state economists warned that slower U.S. growth and higher oil prices could weigh on 2026.
Legislative changes in the 2026 session drove the increase: lawmakers disconnected Oregon from parts of the 2025 federal tax-cut law, offsetting weaker-than-expected tax collections and broader economic softness.
Without those tax changes, the forecast would have fallen by $23 million, according to the Department of Administrative Services’ Office of Economic Analysis.
The weaker national outlook followed the Iran war’s jump in energy prices, which raised costs for households and businesses and led economists to cut next year’s growth expectations.
Strong financial markets and resilient corporate profits still helped counter employment-related weakness, allowing Oregon to maintain a balanced-budget outlook despite the broader slowdown.
With a $345M surplus, can Oregon truly shield its economy from federal instability and the global energy crisis?
While Oregon counters federal policy, are its own local taxes driving away the very prosperity it seeks to build?