OpenAI Seen Filing IPO by Friday as Odds of Beating Anthropic Jump to 83%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · May 20
OpenAI Seen Filing IPO by Friday as Odds of Beating Anthropic Jump to 83%
10 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 20
Kalshi traders swung sharply behind OpenAI after reports it could confidentially file for an IPO as soon as Friday, lifting its odds of debuting before Anthropic from just over 32% to 83%.
Anthropic's lead unraveled at the same time: on Polymarket, its chances of reaching public markets first fell to 20% from 69% after the Wall Street Journal report, later confirmed by CNBC.
The shift matters because the first major private AI company to list can help set sector valuation benchmarks and gain an early edge with public-market investors, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.
OpenAI had recently lost momentum amid spending concerns, missed revenue and growth-target reports, leadership turnover and internal debate over IPO timing, while Anthropic's fast-growing enterprise business had fueled expectations for its own listing.
A court win against Elon Musk this week, combined with the IPO move, could mark a turnaround for OpenAI in the race to become the AI sector's first marquee public offering.
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OpenAI’s $122 Billion IPO: Market Impact, Investor Access, and the Future of Public AI
Overview
OpenAI is preparing for a major milestone with its confidential SEC filing for an IPO expected soon. This move follows a recent legal verdict that cleared a key risk, allowing the company to focus on its public debut. OpenAI’s leadership, led by CFO Friar, is committed to making the IPO accessible by reserving shares for individual investors, reflecting a vision for the company to operate transparently like a public entity. Strong market interest is evident, as OpenAI recently raised over $3 billion from individual backers, signaling robust demand and setting the stage for a highly anticipated public offering.