Armenia, Azerbaijan Pull Away From Russia as 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh Loss Reshapes Region
Updated
Updated · The Bulwark · May 20
Armenia, Azerbaijan Pull Away From Russia as 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh Loss Reshapes Region
2 articles · Updated · The Bulwark · May 20
Armenia is moving further from Moscow ahead of June 7 elections, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly saying Yerevan is not Russia’s ally on Ukraine and deepening contacts with EU leaders.
Russia’s leverage weakened after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine diverted attention from the South Caucasus and its peacekeepers failed to stop Azerbaijan’s 2023 takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, fueling Armenian anger over betrayal.
Moscow has answered with pressure rather than reassurance: Putin urged any EU turn to face a referendum, officials warned Armenia against Western “subjugation,” and Russian regulators suddenly found problems in Armenian imports.
Azerbaijan has also drifted from the Kremlin after Russian air defenses downed an Azerbaijani plane in December 2024; President Ilham Aliyev later backed Ukraine, and Zelensky visited Baku in 2026 for cooperation deals.
The twin shifts suggest Putin’s war, launched to restore Russian influence, is instead loosening Moscow’s hold over former Soviet states in the Caucasus.
With its 'near abroad' slipping away, can Putin's Russia counter the West's influence without triggering a wider regional conflict?
As a US-led corridor redraws trade maps, is the Caucasus escaping Russia's shadow only to become a new superpower battleground?
Armenia and Azerbaijan in Transition: The TRIPP Corridor, Russian Withdrawal, and the Struggle for Lasting Peace
Overview
On August 8, 2025, a pivotal White House meeting hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump brought together Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, resulting in the initialing of a comprehensive peace agreement and a commitment to the U.S.-designed TRIPP Corridor. This new corridor aims to directly connect Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan through southern Armenia, fostering economic integration and stability in the South Caucasus. Supported by the earlier US-Azerbaijan Charter on Strategic Partnership, the TRIPP Corridor stands as a forward-looking project with significant implications for regional peace, economic growth, and cooperation.