FAO Warns Hormuz Closure Could Spark Food Crisis Within 6-12 Months
Updated
Updated · POLITICO Europe · May 20
FAO Warns Hormuz Closure Could Spark Food Crisis Within 6-12 Months
6 articles · Updated · POLITICO Europe · May 20
A 6-12 month lag could turn a Strait of Hormuz closure into a severe global food price shock, the FAO said, putting the main risk window in late 2026 to early 2027.
Fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices made now by farmers and governments will determine whether that disruption becomes a broader food crisis.
Maximo Torero, the FAO's chief economist, urged governments to raise countries' absorption capacity and resilience to the chokepoint shock to limit the fallout.
The warning frames the threat as preventable rather than immediate, with policy action in the coming months seen as critical to avoiding a later price spike.
As fertilizer costs soar, are millions of farmers being priced out of the next planting season?
Can global food systems survive the twin shocks of the Hormuz closure and a powerful El Niño?
Global Agrifood Crisis: Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Fertilizer Price Spike and Food Inflation (May 2026)
Overview
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz as of May 2026 has created an immediate and critical threat to global agrifood systems. This chokepoint disruption is severely impacting the flow of essential agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers and their raw materials, which are vital for food production worldwide. As a result, global fertilizer supply chains are struggling, with key export markets like Sudan, Brazil, and Sri Lanka facing shortages. These disruptions are driving up food prices and raising serious concerns for food security, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated responses and resilient supply chains to prevent a deeper crisis.