Iran War Deepens 2 Red Sea Blocs, Threatening Billions in U.S. and Gulf Interests
Updated
Updated · Foreign Policy · May 18
Iran War Deepens 2 Red Sea Blocs, Threatening Billions in U.S. and Gulf Interests
2 articles · Updated · Foreign Policy · May 18
Two rival coalitions around the Red Sea have hardened since the Iran war began, pulling the Horn of Africa deeper into proxy competition over ports, trade routes and strategic depth.
Israel and the UAE have moved closer, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have advanced defense coordination seen as a counterweight; the split has widened alongside a sharper Israel-Turkey feud and the UAE’s early-May OPEC exit.
Hormuz disruptions and fears of Houthi attacks have raised the value of Red Sea chokepoints, intensifying competition for coastlines in Sudan, Eritrea and Somaliland and increasing pressure on Ethiopia to secure sea access beyond Djibouti.
More than 500 miles of Sudanese coastline and Somaliland’s 500-mile coast are now tied to wider regional rivalries, complicating Sudan peace talks, GERD mediation and efforts to preserve Ethiopia’s Pretoria peace deal.
Billions of dollars in U.S.-linked and Gulf economic interests are at risk, prompting calls for Washington and Europe to combine mediation, conditional financing and sanctions to prevent a broader regional proxy war.
With rival 'Berbera' and 'Mogadishu' axes forming, is the Red Sea on the brink of a multi-front war?
Israel recognized Somaliland. Will this bold move secure new trade routes or ignite an even wider regional conflict?
The 2026 Iran Conflict: Geopolitical Blocs, Oil Market Disruption, and Worldwide Economic Fallout
Overview
The regional conflict began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, quickly escalating into a broader war. President Trump framed the intervention as an effort to encourage regime change in Iran. The immediate aftermath was devastating, causing thousands of deaths, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. The conflict sent shockwaves through the global economy, rattling markets and creating widespread instability. These events deepened existing rivalries and set off a chain reaction of humanitarian and economic crises, highlighting how a single spark can rapidly polarize an entire region and impact the world.