Sweden Says Russia's Economy Shrunk 8% Since 2020 Despite Claimed 13% Growth
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 20
Sweden Says Russia's Economy Shrunk 8% Since 2020 Despite Claimed 13% Growth
1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 20
Sweden’s foreign minister said commissioned economic and intelligence studies indicate Russia’s economy contracted about 8% from 2020 to 2024, contradicting Moscow’s claim of roughly 13% growth.
Nighttime-luminosity analysis — a common proxy where official data are unreliable — underpins that estimate, while Sweden also argues Russia is understating inflation and overstating purchasing power.
Russia’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate to 21% in 2024 even as official inflation was reported near 10%, and Swedish military intelligence believes inflation is above the current official forecast of about 5%.
A British government study put sanctions-related losses to Russia’s economy at at least $450 billion since February 2022, with January 2026 energy revenues down 50% from a year earlier.
Sweden argues a clearer picture of Russia’s economic weakness is critical to sustaining pressure over the war in Ukraine and avoiding both underestimating and overstating Moscow’s capacity.
How can Russia’s supposedly fragile economy sustain a major war and exploit new global crises?
With oil prices surging, have international sanctions against Russia lost their effectiveness?