Goldman Says US Labor Mismatch Fell Below Pre-Pandemic Levels as AI Cut Openings 12%
Updated
Updated · Fortune · May 19
Goldman Says US Labor Mismatch Fell Below Pre-Pandemic Levels as AI Cut Openings 12%
5 articles · Updated · Fortune · May 19
Goldman Sachs economists said the U.S. job-worker mismatch index has dropped from its 2022 peak to slightly below pre-pandemic levels, signaling less structural stress in the labor market.
A 1-standard-deviation rise in AI substitution exposure was linked to 12% fewer job openings versus 2019 averages, which Goldman says helped ease shortages in occupations that were already hard to staff.
Since 2019, openings have shifted away from office-heavy roles toward in-person work, with roughly 450,000 fewer openings in AI-exposed office lanes and 300,000 more in health care, food preparation and maintenance.
The effect has been strongest for computer and information workers, sales representatives and office supervisors—jobs that often served as entry points for college graduates.
Goldman warned the benefit may be temporary: the next phase of AI adoption is likely to hit occupations without the same labor-shortage buffer, requiring more worker adaptation.
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How AI Helped Ease the US Labor Mismatch: Data and Insights from 2022–2026
Overview
Since late 2022, the US labor mismatch index has dropped to below pre-pandemic levels, coinciding with the rapid rise of advanced AI technologies like generative AI. Rather than just replacing jobs, AI is actively rebalancing the workforce by reshaping demand, creating new employment opportunities, and helping to bridge skill gaps. This shift is clear as the need for AI-related skills has surged nearly sevenfold, even while overall job postings have declined. Roles requiring AI expertise are growing and offer a significant wage premium, encouraging more workers to acquire these in-demand skills and adapt to the evolving job market.