IPCC Retires RCP8.5 for AR7 as New CMIP7 Medium Scenario Points to 2.8C Warming
Updated
Updated · theclimatebrink.com · May 19
IPCC Retires RCP8.5 for AR7 as New CMIP7 Medium Scenario Points to 2.8C Warming
14 articles · Updated · theclimatebrink.com · May 19
Van Vuuren et al.'s 2026 paper drops RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 from the IPCC's seventh assessment, replacing the long-used worst-case pathway with new CMIP7 illustrative scenarios.
The shift rests on cheaper renewables, climate policies and recent emissions trends that make the old pathway's tripling of CO2 emissions and fivefold coal growth by 2100 implausible.
Researchers argue the change should not be read as climate science being 'wrong': RCP8.5 was a high-end stress test, not the most likely business-as-usual outcome, and current-policy warming still centers near 2.8C.
That 2.8C median still carries a 2.1C-3.7C likely range, while CMIP7's high scenario reaches about 3.2C by 2100 and can approach old RCP8.5-like warming by 2150 if emissions stay above zero.
The paper says progress has likely cut expected 2100 warming by roughly 0.7C rather than 1.7C, underscoring both real gains from clean-energy deployment and the continued urgency of deeper cuts.
If the worst climate future is now less likely, why does new data suggest global warming has significantly accelerated in the last decade?
Did green energy policies save us from a 'hothouse' Earth, or were the most dire climate predictions always fundamentally flawed?
With the 1.5°C goal lost, can renewable energy possibly outpace the massive new power demands from AI and electric vehicles?
Global Warming Now Projected at 3–3.5°C by 2100: Progress, Pitfalls, and the Race for Resilience
Overview
Recent scientific assessments show that the worst-case global warming projection for 2100 has improved, dropping from 4–5°C to about 3.5°C. This positive shift comes nearly a decade after the Paris Agreement, which set ambitious temperature limits and spurred rapid growth in renewable energy and new climate policies. However, after initial progress, global efforts have plateaued, even as dangerous climate impacts become more visible. The expansion of renewables and policy action have helped lower warming projections, but rising energy demand and uneven emissions reductions mean the world is still far from meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal.