22V Warns 5% Treasury Yield or $115 Brent Could Break Bull Market

5 articles · Updated · CNBC · May 19

22V Research said investors see a 10-year Treasury yield at 5% or Brent crude above $115 a barrel as the point where demand destruction could push GDP growth below 1% for multiple quarters.
The warning comes with markets already close to those levels: the 10-year yield rose to about 4.65% Tuesday, its highest since early 2025, while Brent traded above $110 after jumping more than 54% since the U.S.-Iran war began.
Dennis DeBusschere said a 5% yield could arrive soon if the Strait of Hormuz, mostly shuttered since the war started, is not reopened, adding that the past week's jump in global yields has raised tail risk and fears that "something could break."
Stocks slipped Tuesday under pressure from higher rates, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest in nearly 19 years, even as major indexes remain near records.
Goldman Sachs said the rally still rests on expectations for 5.9% nominal global GDP growth in 2026, but warned the advance is highly concentrated and another surge in yields or hotter inflation could trigger a correction.

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