NOAA Sees 61% Chance of El Niño by July as 25% Risk Builds for Very Strong Event
Updated
Updated · BBC Science Focus · May 18
NOAA Sees 61% Chance of El Niño by July as 25% Risk Builds for Very Strong Event
4 articles · Updated · BBC Science Focus · May 18
NOAA’s latest outlook puts the odds of El Niño forming by July at 61%, with a 25% chance it reaches “very strong” intensity — a threshold crossed only three times in modern records.
Powerful westerly wind bursts have shoved an unusually warm pool of Pacific water eastward, and one scientist said it would take trade winds beyond the 99th percentile to keep the event from becoming extremely strong.
Paul Roundy of the University at Albany now sees roughly a 50% chance the event becomes the strongest on record, up from about 20% a few weeks ago, though future wind shifts could still alter its peak.
A strong El Niño can flip weather patterns worldwide — raising flood risk in parts of the U.S., suppressing monsoons in Asia, hurting Peru’s fisheries and reducing Atlantic hurricane activity through stronger wind shear.
With global temperatures already more than 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists warn a super El Niño in 2026-27 could amplify heat, wildfire, flood and drought extremes, even as the scale and persistence remain uncertain.
How will this supercharged El Niño permanently remap the world's weather, food supplies, and economic fault lines?
As a super El Niño meets record global heat, are we witnessing the start of irreversible climate tipping points?
Super El Niño 2026-27: Global Risks, Record Heat, and Urgent Preparedness in a Warming World
Overview
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that begins with the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which then alters wind patterns and causes widespread changes in global weather. As of May 2026, a possible El Niño is developing, and if it becomes very strong, the world could see record global temperatures in 2027. Past strong El Niño events have led to much more frequent high tide flooding, especially in coastal areas already affected by decades of sea level rise. This highlights the significant risks and global impacts that a powerful El Niño can bring.