Super El Niño May Become Strongest Since 1950, Threatening Hundreds of Millions
Updated
Updated · CNN · May 19
Super El Niño May Become Strongest Since 1950, Threatening Hundreds of Millions
6 articles · Updated · CNN · May 19
Some computer models show the developing Super El Niño could surpass 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, though scientists say its peak strength will not be clear until it unfolds.
Hundreds of millions of people could face flooding, drought, heat waves, wildfires and crop losses, while an intense event is also expected to help push the world toward a record-warm year.
Past damage has been enormous: a 2023 Science study linked the 1982-83 El Niño to $4.1 trillion in global income losses and the 1997-98 event to $5.7 trillion over five years.
Forecasting has improved since the 1980s, helping governments and aid groups pre-position food and plan for seasonal risks, but vulnerable countries may be less able to respond because of aid-budget cuts and the dismantling of USAID.
Climate change makes this event less predictable than past analogs, as unusually warm oceans beyond the equatorial Pacific could reshape how El Niño affects weather and fragile ecosystems for years.
Models predict a 'Super' El Niño, but could a key atmospheric trigger fail and avert the global catastrophe?
As El Niño meets global conflict and record heat, is our global food system prepared for the perfect storm?
Advanced AI now predicts El Niño years ahead, but are we capable of using that warning to prevent disaster?
The Imminent 2026-2027 Super El Niño: Amplified Global Impacts and Lessons for Climate Resilience
Overview
A powerful 'super El Niño' is expected in 2026-2027, occurring while global ocean and surface temperatures are already much higher than in the past. This means the event will happen on a warmer baseline, which can make its effects on the climate system even stronger. As a result, the impacts could be more severe than previous El Niño events, with a high chance that 2026 or 2027 will become the hottest year ever recorded. Past strong El Niño events have been linked to record-breaking global temperatures, showing the potential for this upcoming event to set new heat records.