HFI Research Warns Oil Could Top $150 by June as Hormuz Closure Drains Inventories
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · May 19
HFI Research Warns Oil Could Top $150 by June as Hormuz Closure Drains Inventories
4 articles · Updated · Business Insider · May 19
The first week of June could mark a market breaking point, HFI Research said, with crude facing “real panic” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and buyers start hoarding barrels.
Brent has held above $100 for most of the past month despite a standstill in the Middle East conflict, and HFI argues that resilience reflects severe supply disruption rather than a path back to normal.
US and other emergency stock draws have so far cushioned the shock, but HFI said inventories are nearing tank bottoms; US oil and petroleum stocks were 1.6 billion barrels in the week ended May 8, down 67 million since early April.
That leaves HFI sharply at odds with more optimistic forecasters expecting normalization by June, with the firm saying record prices are likely and crude above $150 a barrel remains possible.
With oil price forecasts split between $60 and $150, what overlooked factor will determine the market's true direction?
Beyond oil, how could the disruption of a single commodity in the Strait of Hormuz trigger a global food crisis?
As Iran asserts permanent control over the Strait, which nations are best positioned to thrive in this new era of global trade?
Oil Above $100, Supply Chains in Chaos: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Its Global Economic Fallout
Overview
As of May 2026, the global oil market is facing a severe crisis marked by significant inventory drawdowns and the persistent risk of a sharp, non-linear price spike. While the initial rush for physical oil cargoes has eased, the market has shifted to managing scarcity, but rapidly depleting stocks continue to drive prices higher. A slight slowdown in drawdowns, partly due to weaker demand from China, offers only a brief reprieve. The overall trend points to inevitable price increases, highlighting the fragile balance between supply and demand and setting the stage for further economic challenges.