Russia Cuts China Gas Price Outlook 7% and Lowers Export Forecasts to 84.5 bcm

4 articles · Updated · Reuters · May 19

Russia trimmed its forecast for pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union, seeing volumes at 75 bcm in 2026 versus 78.2 bcm in 2025 and only 84.5 bcm by 2029.
The same government outlook cut expected gas export prices to China for 2027-2029 by just over 7% to $224-$236 per 1,000 cubic meters, underscoring weaker revenue prospects.
Those revisions add to budget pressure from a softer economic outlook, lower oil and gas assumptions and rising military spending.
China is now Russia's biggest gas market, and supplies there could still rise 47% to 56 bcm a year after 2027 through the Far Eastern route and expanded Power of Siberia flows.
That growth may not fully offset Europe: China pays about 30% less than Europe and Turkey, while the EU plans to end Russian gas imports by November 2027.

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