Starting Tuesday, Polymarket began listing contracts on private-company milestones, including whether OpenAI has a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 and whether Anthropic reaches a $500 billion valuation in 2026.
Nasdaq Private Market will exclusively determine outcomes and, for the first time, make its valuation data public for free, giving traders a transparent source for contracts tied to private-market prices and events.
The launch targets a gap for ordinary investors shut out of direct private-company ownership: they can now trade on valuations, IPO timing and secondary-market activity without getting shares or voting rights.
Polymarket is pushing beyond rivals such as Kalshi, which offers some private-company IPO event contracts but not valuation markets and uses multiple sources rather than a single private-market data provider.
With more than 1,600 unicorns still private, the new contracts test whether fragmented private-market information can support liquid, reliable prediction markets that institutions and retail traders both use as pricing signals.
Is Polymarket's new market a genuine price discovery tool or just a high-stakes casino for private tech giants?
How will unicorns like SpaceX protect their valuations from speculation and manipulation on these new public prediction markets?