Google Commits to 2029 Quantum-Safe Migration as RSA Threat Estimate Drops Below 100,000 Qubits
Updated
Updated · Scientific American · May 19
Google Commits to 2029 Quantum-Safe Migration as RSA Threat Estimate Drops Below 100,000 Qubits
1 articles · Updated · Scientific American · May 19
Google said it will migrate its systems by 2029 to protect against quantum hacking, signaling that the risk to current encryption is no longer viewed as distant.
Fewer than 100,000 qubits may be enough to crack RSA, according to a February estimate from Iceberg Quantum that sharply lowered the long-held roughly 1 million-qubit assumption.
That estimate has not been peer-reviewed, but cryptography experts cited in the report said it is credible enough to intensify concern over bank-transfer, cryptocurrency and communications security.
Google's move aligns with a broader shift toward post-quantum cryptography after NIST published three quantum-resistant standards in 2024, even as researchers debate how soon practical code-breaking machines will arrive.
Experts in the report still place useful large-scale quantum computing years away, with some warning RSA could fall within 5 to 10 years while practical applications in physics, materials and AI emerge more gradually.
With AI now accelerating quantum development, is the global race to protect today's encryption already lost?
If fault-tolerant quantum computers need just 10,000 qubits, which industries will be the first to be completely transformed?
Beyond building more qubits, is the shortage of human experts the real barrier to a quantum future?
Countdown to Q-Day: Why 2029 Is the Critical Deadline for Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration
Overview
The rapid progress in quantum computing is creating an urgent challenge for digital security, pushing the industry to move quickly toward post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Google has taken a leading role by setting a 2029 deadline for PQC migration, providing much-needed clarity and urgency for both its own ecosystem and the wider industry. This marks a shift from simply assessing risks to actively implementing concrete PQC solutions. Companies like Cloudflare are also aligning with this timeline, showing a broader industry commitment. As a result, the focus is now on making systems like Android quantum resistant and accelerating the transition to secure the digital future.