Updated · Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris · May 19
Independents, 2024 Non-Voters Swing 24 Points Left in NYT/Siena Poll
Updated
Updated · Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris · May 19
Independents, 2024 Non-Voters Swing 24 Points Left in NYT/Siena Poll
2 articles · Updated · Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris · May 19
A 24-point leftward swing among independents and 2024 non-voters emerged as the standout finding in the new New York Times/Siena poll, pointing to erosion among the less politically engaged voters who helped elect Donald Trump.
Those crosstabs suggest Trump has lost ground with persuadable voters after making 2024 gains among irregular voters who had traditionally leaned Democratic.
The same poll put Trump at 37% job approval with 59% disapproval and gave Democrats an 11-point edge on the generic congressional ballot among registered voters.
That combination strengthens the case that Republicans could face a difficult midterm environment, even though narrow congressional majorities and district maps still complicate Democratic pickup paths.
Why might a national polling lead not translate into control of Congress after recent redistricting changes?