NBER Study Finds Trump Deportations Cut Jobs 5% for Undocumented Men, 1.3% for U.S.-Born Workers
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · May 19
NBER Study Finds Trump Deportations Cut Jobs 5% for Undocumented Men, 1.3% for U.S.-Born Workers
1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · May 19
A new NBER study found deportation surges between January and October 2025 reduced employment for both groups the policy was supposed to separate—down 5% for male undocumented workers and 1.3% for male American-born men without college degrees.
Researchers saw no wage gains for U.S.-born workers; instead, labor-intensive industries slowed as immigration arrests disrupted staffing and production.
Construction was hit hardest, with American-born workers in the sector losing more jobs from the deportation wave than undocumented workers who remained.
The national analysis examined communities with sharp deportation increases and focused on agriculture, construction, manufacturing and wholesale—industries that rely heavily on undocumented labor.
The findings challenge a central Trump administration claim that mass deportations would open jobs and raise pay for American-born workers.
If deportations reduce jobs for everyone, what is the real economic cost of a shrinking immigrant workforce?
The study found a 'chilling effect' on labor. How does this fear impact local economies beyond just jobs?
Construction and farming face worker shortages. How will this impact the price of new homes and food?