Arsenal Draw 87.8% Win Odds Against Burnley as 2 Victories Would Seal Premier League Title
Updated
Updated · The Analyst · May 18
Arsenal Draw 87.8% Win Odds Against Burnley as 2 Victories Would Seal Premier League Title
5 articles · Updated · The Analyst · May 18
Opta’s supercomputer gave Arsenal an 87.8% chance of beating relegated Burnley on Monday, one of the highest Premier League win probabilities in its five-season database.
That forecast reflects Burnley’s collapse — just two wins and 13 losses in 18 away league games — and Arsenal’s title-driven urgency, with wins in their final two matches enough to secure the crown.
Arsenal have won all nine home league games this season against current bottom-half sides, outscoring them 23-2, and have taken four of their last five matches without conceding a non-penalty goal.
History still offers a caution: Arsenal needed a 93rd-minute own goal to edge Wolves despite 85.4% pre-match odds, while Manchester City’s 82.1% edge over Southampton in 2021 ended in a draw.
Even so, Opta’s recent record strongly favors the hosts: the top 14 highest home win probabilities over the past five Premier League seasons all ended in victories.
Can Arsenal’s tactical dominance finally overcome their history of late-season title race collapses?
With an 87.8% win probability, what unquantifiable factor could still trigger a historic title race upset?