SportsLine Model Backs Under 221.5 in Thunder-Spurs Game 1 After 10,000 Simulations
Updated
Updated · CBS Sports · May 18
SportsLine Model Backs Under 221.5 in Thunder-Spurs Game 1 After 10,000 Simulations
11 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · May 18
SportsLine’s projection model made the Under 221.5 its top published pick for Monday’s Western Conference finals opener after simulating Thunder-Spurs 10,000 times.
The model projects 213 total points, with the Under cashing in 64% of simulations as both teams are forecast to have only three players reach modest scoring thresholds.
Oklahoma City enters Game 1 as a 6.5-point home favorite at Paycom Center, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 29.7 points and Victor Wembanyama for 24.7.
San Antonio reached the series by beating Minnesota 4-2, while the Thunder swept the Lakers; De’Aaron Fox and Luke Kornet are questionable for the Spurs, and Jalen Williams is available for OKC.
The model brings a strong recent track record into the matchup, going 26-10 on top-rated NBA spread picks this season and claiming more than $10,000 in profit over eight-plus years.
Will Jalen Williams' return disrupt the Thunder's perfect playoff momentum after Ajay Mitchell's breakout performances?
The Spurs swept the regular season 4-0. Can Victor Wembanyama's dominance continue against the reigning champs in the playoffs?