China's Aluminum Output Hits Record 129,000 Tons as Iran War Drives Biggest Supply Shock in 50 Years
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · May 19
China's Aluminum Output Hits Record 129,000 Tons as Iran War Drives Biggest Supply Shock in 50 Years
2 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · May 19
China's daily aluminum output climbed to an all-time high of 129,000 tons last month, pushing the world's biggest producer closer to capacity and demand limits.
Record smelter margins and a global shortage tied to the war in Iran fueled the surge, keeping Chinese plants running at elevated rates.
Citigroup expects aluminum prices to rise further as the market absorbs what it called the biggest supply shock in 50 years.
The jump underscores how geopolitical disruption is tightening global metal supplies even as China expands output to capture unusually strong returns.
With Mideast smelters offline, can China's record output save the global market before its own production cap is hit?
As aluminum prices soar, is the global green energy transition and the future of affordable electric vehicles now at risk?
Are missile strikes on industrial hubs the new blueprint for economic warfare, exposing fatal flaws in global supply chains?
Global Aluminum Crisis 2026: Middle East Supply Collapse, China’s Limits, and a Projected 1.4 Million Tonne Deficit
Overview
In April 2026, the global aluminum market is in crisis due to severe supply shocks and surging prices. China, the world’s largest producer, is already operating near its production limits, as it tries to manage emissions and avoid overcapacity. Analysts are divided on whether China can help ease the shortage; some think the government might restart idle smelters if prices rise further, but others believe China’s ability to increase supply is limited. With strong domestic demand in China and ongoing global disruptions, the market faces critically low inventories and continued price volatility, leaving buyers scrambling for available aluminum.