Study Finds AI Has Not Cut U.S. Job Postings Since 2022, With Less Than 10% Highly Exposed
Updated
Updated · Liberty Street Economics - · May 14
Study Finds AI Has Not Cut U.S. Job Postings Since 2022, With Less Than 10% Highly Exposed
6 articles · Updated · Liberty Street Economics - · May 14
A New York Fed study found little evidence that generative AI has caused a distinct drop in U.S. labor demand or entry-level hiring, even as overall job postings have slowed since late 2022.
Using Lightcast postings and an Anthropic-based exposure measure, the researchers found fewer than 10% of workers and vacancies sit in occupations with AI exposure of at least 0.4, while 40% of workers are in jobs with zero measured exposure.
Event-study results showed postings in higher-exposure occupations were already weakening before ChatGPT’s late-2022 release, and the gap versus lower-exposure jobs stabilized after 2023 rather than widening.
Within highly exposed occupations, junior and senior job postings moved broadly in parallel, with no clear post-2022 divergence that would signal AI was disproportionately reducing entry-level demand.
The study says firms appear to be adopting AI mainly through retraining rather than cutting hiring, suggesting AI may be a factor in labor-market shifts but not the main driver of the hiring slowdown.
With reports blaming AI for layoffs, why does the Federal Reserve conclude its labor market impact is minimal?
If AI automates entry-level tasks, how will the next generation of workers build foundational career experience?
As companies adopt AI, which uniquely human skills will become more valuable than technical proficiency?
How Generative AI Is Reshaping U.S. Jobs: Key Trends, Risks, and Workforce Strategies, 2022–2026
Overview
Since the widespread introduction of generative AI tools in late 2022, the U.S. labor market has not seen broad job losses, but rather a nuanced transformation. While overall employment and job postings have remained stable, AI has caused significant shifts within specific sectors and among certain groups, especially early-career workers. The tech sector’s employment share has dropped below its long-term trend, and there is a strong surge in demand for AI-related skills in non-tech roles. These changes highlight how AI is reshaping job opportunities and skill requirements, rather than eliminating jobs across the board.