Updated · Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington · May 18
CREW Urges Ban on Executive Prediction-Market Bets as Volume Topped $20 Billion in January
Updated
Updated · Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington · May 18
CREW Urges Ban on Executive Prediction-Market Bets as Volume Topped $20 Billion in January
2 articles · Updated · Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington · May 18
CREW asked the Office of Government Ethics to bar senior executive-branch officials from prediction markets and ban all career employees from betting on political or military events.
The watchdog said officials could exploit nonpublic information for profit, citing reports of suspicious trading on Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of presidential announcements, U.S. airstrikes in Iran and an Iranian ceasefire announcement.
BBC analysis found trading spikes hours or minutes before major announcements, often from new accounts with little other activity, patterns CREW said could signal insider trading and expose military plans to foreign adversaries.
CREW also urged OGE to require senior officials to divest stakes in prediction-market companies, including Trump Media and Technology Group, as the sector's monthly volume jumped from just over $1 billion in early 2025 to more than $20 billion in January 2026.
With fortunes made on state secrets, can regulators police global crypto markets before the next major intelligence leak occurs?
Do prediction markets expose the truth, or create a new way for insiders to profit from it?
Insider Trading Crisis in Prediction Markets: Calls for a Federal Ban to Protect National Security and Public Trust
Overview
Concerns over national security, public trust, and the integrity of democratic processes have led to an urgent call for a comprehensive ban on government officials' participation in prediction markets. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has formally urged the Office of Government Ethics to implement strict regulations, recommending a prohibition on all government employees—especially senior officials—from betting on political or military events and requiring divestment from prediction market companies. This push comes as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi expand operations, with Polymarket facilitating offshore trades beyond U.S. regulatory reach, intensifying scrutiny and highlighting the need for robust oversight.