Study Sees Megaconstellations Driving 42% of Space Climate Impact by 2029
Updated
Updated · Gizmodo · May 18
Study Sees Megaconstellations Driving 42% of Space Climate Impact by 2029
5 articles · Updated · Gizmodo · May 18
42% of the space sector’s climate impact could come from megaconstellation deployment by 2029, up from about 35% in 2020, according to a May 14 study in Earth’s Future.
black carbon from kerosene-fueled rocket launches is the main driver: released 10 to 12 kilometers up, it lingers longer and has a cooling effect about 500 times stronger than soot from ground sources.
296 launches put a record 4,434 satellites into orbit in 2025, a 65% jump from 2024, underscoring how fast commercial deployment is expanding as satellite revenue reached 71% of the global space business.
The researchers said actual 2023-2024 launch growth and propellant use already exceeded the 2020-2022 trend used in their model, suggesting the 2029 estimate may be conservative.
Ozone damage was projected as small for now because most megaconstellation rockets avoid chlorine-heavy propellants, but the team urged tighter monitoring and regulation as some companies consider chlorine-emitting fuels.
As thousands of satellites fall from orbit, are we creating an irreversible climate experiment above our heads?
Who polices the sky when outdated laws can't stop pollution from a million new satellites?
With private companies now ruling space, is our view of the stars becoming a luxury of the past?
100,000 Satellites by 2035: The Environmental and Ethical Crisis of Megaconstellations in Earth Orbit
Overview
Earth’s orbit is undergoing a dramatic transformation, with a surge in satellite launches driven by the rise of megaconstellations like SpaceX’s Starlink. By May 2026, the number of objects in orbit—including thousands of defunct satellites and debris—has reached unprecedented levels, reshaping global infrastructure. Starlink alone accounts for over half the mass in Low Earth Orbit, as thousands of small satellites are launched to provide worldwide high-speed internet. This rapid growth highlights a major shift in how we use space, raising urgent questions about sustainability, environmental impact, and the need for new regulations.