Trump's 40% NOAA Cut Threatens Forecast Accuracy as AI Models Face Extreme-Weather Limits
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · May 18
Trump's 40% NOAA Cut Threatens Forecast Accuracy as AI Models Face Extreme-Weather Limits
2 articles · Updated · The Guardian · May 18
Experts warn Trump administration cuts to climate and weather data programs could weaken US federal forecasts just before hurricane season and a summer expected to bring record heat.
A proposed 40% cut to NOAA, alongside staffing losses that have reduced balloon launches, satellite operations and threatened buoy networks, is shrinking the data and research base forecasts depend on.
NOAA says its new AI-powered models add to—not replace—physics-based systems, but researchers say AI needs abundant training data and still underperforms on extreme events that are becoming more common.
A February 2026 northeastern blizzard already showed conventional models beating AI-based forecasts, reinforcing concerns that models trained on historical patterns struggle with a climate that has shifted beyond past norms.
NOAA issues its 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook on Thursday, with former officials warning any drop in forecast skill would hit disaster warnings, aviation, shipping, energy and agriculture.
Will cheaper, faster AI forecasts cost us more when the next big hurricane hits?
Can AI predict future superstorms using data from a climate that no longer exists?
NOAA Faces Historic 30% Budget Cut: Congressional Showdown Over U.S. Weather Science, Safety, and Global Leadership
Overview
Congress is closely examining proposed budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), especially the plan to eliminate the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). Lawmakers and the scientific community are concerned that removing OAR could harm external research and university grants. NOAA’s administrator explained that while OAR would be closed, some research would continue in other offices, but many grants would still be cut. Supporters of the cuts argue they are needed to reduce government spending and bureaucracy, but critics warn these changes could weaken scientific progress and public safety.