Trump Allies Pour $26 Million Into Ousting Massie in Kentucky Primary as Polls Show 5-Point Deficit
Updated
Updated · USA TODAY · May 18
Trump Allies Pour $26 Million Into Ousting Massie in Kentucky Primary as Polls Show 5-Point Deficit
11 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · May 18
$26 million in ad spending has turned Kentucky's May 19 GOP primary into the most expensive House primary on record, with Trump and allied groups trying to unseat Rep. Thomas Massie after his breaks with the president.
A Quantus Insights poll released a week before the election put retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein ahead by about 5 points, a reversal from April when the same firm showed Massie leading by roughly 9 points.
Trump's offensive followed Massie's criticism of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and his broader resistance to White House priorities; Massie says Trump abandoned MAGA promises on spending, wars and anti-establishment politics.
Outside groups have driven much of the barrage: MAGA KY spent nearly $2.3 million attacking Massie, while the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund spent just over $2.5 million backing Gallrein amid tensions over Massie's criticism of Israel.
The race is being watched as a test of whether Republican voters still reward independence—Massie won about 80% in 2020 after a Trump attack—or now punish dissent in a party shaped by Trump's loyalty demands.
How is record campaign spending by outside groups influencing the priorities of local congressional races?
When a local election becomes a test of foreign policy views, who do lawmakers truly represent?
Kentucky’s $5.5 Million GOP Primary: Trump’s Influence, Outside Spending, and the Fight to Unseat Thomas Massie
Overview
The Republican primary for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District in May 2026 is a high-stakes and tightly contested race, with significant financial engagement and unprecedented activity in prediction markets. Over $5.5 million has been wagered on the outcome, reflecting the race's intensity and uncertainty just a week before voting. Incumbent Thomas Massie and challenger Ed Gallrein are both drawing strong support from different demographic groups, while public events and aggressive campaigning highlight the immediate proximity of decision day. This contest not only showcases deep divisions within the party but also signals the growing influence of outside spending and high-profile endorsements.