China Posts 19.2% Export Growth in Early 2026 as Q1 Recovery Gains Breadth

1 articles · Updated · China Daily · May 18

Exports rose 19.2% in January-February, helping China open 2026 with faster industrial output, stronger services activity and a broader-than-expected first-quarter recovery.
Front-loaded policy support underpinned that start: fixed-asset investment grew 1.8% after a 3.8% decline in 2024, retail sales rose 2.8%, and aggregate financing and M2 expanded 8.2% and 9%.
Prices and profits also improved, with CPI up 0.8%, core CPI up 1.3%, the PPI decline narrowing to 0.9% in February, and industrial profits jumping 15.2%.
Demand still lagged supply, however: industrial output and services production grew 6.3% and 5.2%, while retail sales and investment rose only 2.8% and 1.8%; property investment fell 11.1% and private investment dropped 2.6%.
External risks could test the rebound later in 2026, with oil potentially reaching $130-$150 a barrel if Hormuz disruptions persist and WTO baseline merchandise trade growth slowing to 1.9%.

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