$800 Million Oil Bet Preceded 10% Price Drop as US Probes Possible Iran-Talks Insider Trading
Updated
Updated · CBS New York · May 17
$800 Million Oil Bet Preceded 10% Price Drop as US Probes Possible Iran-Talks Insider Trading
7 articles · Updated · CBS New York · May 17
$800 million was wagered on falling oil prices at 6:50 a.m. on March 23, and 15 minutes later Trump's post about productive White House-Iran talks sent oil down more than 10%.
LSEG data reviewed by 60 Minutes showed the burst of trading hit an otherwise quiet market, and lawyer David Kovel said the position could have produced tens of millions of dollars, possibly as much as $80 million.
Federal investigators are now probing those oil trades, according to the report, though the identities and location of the traders remain unknown.
The oil case sits within a broader pattern of suspected war-related insider trading: one Army master sergeant is accused of turning $34,000 in Polymarket bets into more than $400,000, while nine linked accounts allegedly made $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on military events.
Researchers, lawyers and military sources told the program the spread of conflict betting is outpacing enforcement and could create not just market abuse but national-security risks.
With hundreds of millions in profits, can regulators police insider trading tied to secret geopolitical events?
Are prediction markets creating a new, unstoppable form of insider trading for government officials?