Analysts Warn Brent Could Hit $140 as Hormuz Closure Drains 164 Million Barrels
Updated
Updated · Fortune · May 16
Analysts Warn Brent Could Hit $140 as Hormuz Closure Drains 164 Million Barrels
2 articles · Updated · Fortune · May 16
$130-$140 oil next month is now a live risk, Capital Economics said, if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed and OECD inventories keep falling at April’s pace.
164 million barrels had already been released from government and industry stocks by May 8, the IEA said, while JPMorgan and Saudi Aramco warned fuel inventories could hit operational or critically low levels by early June.
Brent still closed Friday at $109.26 a barrel—up more than 3%—because emergency stock releases, ample oil at sea when the war began, and weaker Chinese imports have so far cushioned the shock.
That buffer is thinning: about 1 billion barrels of supply has already been lost, reserve drawdowns cannot continue indefinitely, and some Asian countries have already imposed fuel rationing.
With Trump’s China trip yielding no breakthrough, Iran still attacking Gulf shipping and naval reopening efforts on hold, UBS warned exhausted buffers could trigger panic buying and a non-linear price spike.
As oil inventories near critical lows, are widespread societal shutdowns and mandatory rationing now inevitable for major economies?
With diplomacy stalled and reserves dwindling, what is the trigger for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
While the world watches oil prices, what is the fate of 20,000 seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf crisis?
When 20% of World Oil Stopped: The 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Its Global Economic Impact
Overview
The report traces how Iran’s refusal to give up its enriched uranium, amid rising U.S.-Israeli tensions, led to direct military clashes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026. This chokepoint shutdown triggered a global oil shock, as emergency reserves were released but proved insufficient for a prolonged crisis. Oil demand and refinery activity dropped sharply, causing price spikes, inflation, and economic strain worldwide. The disruption exposed vulnerabilities in global energy and supply chains, prompting governments to seek alternative sources, accelerate energy transitions, and rethink strategies for future energy security and resilience.