UHERO Warns Hawaii Could Slip Into Recession if Oil Hits $170

5 articles · Updated · Honolulu Star-Advertiser · May 15

UHERO said a Hawaii recession is still not its base case, but rising oil prices could push the state into contraction by hitting tourism and consumer spending.
Oil could peak at $120 a barrel in an optimistic scenario or $170 in a pessimistic one, after the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted global commerce.
Hawaii’s outlook has already worsened in UHERO’s second-quarter forecast, with higher fuel costs expected to raise living expenses and slow growth in key visitor markets.
Honolulu inflation is projected at 4.1% or 4.8% this year, underscoring how an external energy shock could spread from household budgets to the broader state economy.

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