May 15 marked the National Hurricane Center’s first daily Atlantic tropical outlook of 2026, even though the season officially starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Forecasters moved the routine outlooks to May 15 beginning in 2021 after several years of pre-season activity; the reports now update every six hours and track development chances over two to seven days.
0 disturbances were flagged on the first outlook, with only two tropical waves in the Atlantic and experts saying dry air and wind shear make these early-season waves a low concern.
NOAA is due to issue its 2026 seasonal forecast on May 21; current private outlooks generally call for about 10 to 16 named storms, versus a 1991-2020 average of 14.
Forecasts predict fewer storms, but does that mean less danger when hurricanes are becoming stronger and wetter?
El Niño promises a quiet hurricane season, but with record-warm oceans, which force will ultimately win out this year?