Experts See $4.50 U.S. Gas Taking Months or Years to Return to Pre-War Levels

4 articles · Updated · FactCheck.org · May 14

$4.50 a gallon U.S. gasoline is unlikely to return quickly to its $2.94 pre-war average, with analysts saying meaningful relief may take months and a full reset could stretch beyond a year.
A 53% jump followed Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz after U.S.-Israel strikes, choking off a route that carried about 20 million barrels a day, roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
Patrick De Haan said even if the strait reopened immediately, normal tanker flows would still take weeks to resume, with some cargoes not reaching market until July and sub-$3 gasoline looking doubtful anytime soon.
Other forecasts also point to a slow unwind: some experts see prices settling around $3.25-$3.50 later on, while the EIA projects average gasoline at $3.88 in 2026 and $3.62 in 2027.
That outlook undercuts Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's claims of a rapid snapback after the war, and experts say Trump's proposed 18.4-cent federal gas-tax holiday could spur demand and slow inventory rebuilding.

With experts predicting months of high prices, could gasoline costs stay elevated even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens?

How might prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reshape global oil trade and future energy security strategies?