S&P 500’s 31% 12-Month Gain Ranks in 88th Percentile Over 50 Years
Updated
Updated · A Wealth of Common Sense · May 15
S&P 500’s 31% 12-Month Gain Ranks in 88th Percentile Over 50 Years
2 articles · Updated · A Wealth of Common Sense · May 15
A 31% S&P 500 gain over the past 12 months was strong but not exceptional historically, ranking in the 88th percentile of rolling one-year returns since 1975.
Data going back 50 years show the best 12-month return was 61% in the early 1980s, while the worst was a 43% loss during the financial crisis.
Returns of 40% or more occurred 22 times and gains above 50% happened seven times, while the index was negative in 17% of one-year periods and down 20% or more just 3% of the time.
After prior 12-month gains of 30% or more, the next year's average return was 11.1%, suggesting big rallies have often been followed by further gains even if short-term forecasting remains highly uncertain.
$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 1975 would be worth about $4.2 million today, reflecting a 12.5% annualized return through the end of April.
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