Observational data and advanced modelling show a 10–15% decline since 2004, with some models predicting a 42–58% slowdown by 2100.
A collapse could trigger extreme climate disruptions, including colder European winters, disrupted monsoons, and the release of vast amounts of carbon from the Southern Ocean.
Could an Atlantic current collapse trigger a runaway greenhouse effect from the Southern Ocean?
Is the Gulf Stream's recent northward shift the final warning before a global climate collapse?
Did changes in the Southern Ocean seal the fate of the Atlantic current years ago?
Could an Atlantic collapse warm Antarctica enough to cause tens of meters of sea level rise?
We may have only 25 years to act. Is it already too late to stop the ocean's circulation from stopping?
With Europe facing an ice-age-like freeze, what happens to its food and energy security?
AMOC Collapse Probability Surges Above 50% Amid Rapid Arctic and Greenland Ice Melt (2024–2100)
Overview
Recent research shows that accelerating meltwater from Arctic and Greenland ice sheets is diluting North Atlantic surface waters, weakening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by disrupting the sinking of dense water. This weakening is projected to slow the AMOC by up to 58% by 2100 and raises the chance of a full collapse to over 50% this century. Feedback loops trap heat beneath the ocean surface, melting more glaciers and releasing additional freshwater, further weakening the AMOC. A collapse would cause extreme regional cooling in Iceland and Northern Europe, shift tropical rainfall patterns, accelerate sea-level rise on Atlantic coasts, and trigger an uneven global temperature rise, worsening climate change. Immediate emissions cuts and enhanced monitoring are critical to prevent this tipping point.