Knicks Hold 63% NBA Finals Edge After Spurs Cut Series Deficit to 2-1

Q: Can the Spurs defy an unprecedented historical curse, or will losing the first two home games seal their fate?

The Spurs can still defy it, but history and the current odds still say the Knicks are more likely to finish the job. San Antonio’s 115-111 win in Game 3 changed the series from near-collapse to a live contest. It cut New York’s lead to 2-1, lifted the Spurs’ title probability from 21% to 37% on Kalshi, and restored Victor Wembanyama’s Finals MVP case after his 32-point, eight-rebound, six-assist response. That matters because the Spurs’ path is clear: if they win Game 4, the series is tied and they would host two of the final three games, a scenario that could make them favorites. But the historical burden is real. No team in NBA Finals history has won the championship after losing the first two games at home. The Spurs are only the third team to face that exact situation, after the 1993 Suns and 1995 Magic, and both lost. More broadly, teams have come back from 0-2 in the Finals, but only after dropping those games on the road, not at home. The immediate pressure point is Game 4. The Knicks remain slight favorites both on the spread and in prediction markets, with about a 53% chance to win the game and a 63% chance to win the series. If New York wins, San Antonio would fall into a 3-1 hole that is almost always fatal. If the Spurs win, the “curse” becomes much less decisive and the series effectively resets. So losing the first two home games has not sealed San Antonio’s fate, but it has left almost no margin for error.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jun 9

San Antonio’s 115-111 Game 3 win at Madison Square Garden lifted its NBA Finals title odds to 37% from a series-low 21%, while New York slipped to 63% on Kalshi.
Victor Wembanyama drove that rebound with 32 points, eight rebounds and six assists, helping the Spurs avoid the 0-3 hole that would have all but ended the series.
Game 4 markets still lean New York only narrowly: the Knicks are 53% favorites and -1.5, with a Spurs win likely enough to flip the overall series favorite.
Finals MVP pricing remains unsettled, with Jalen Brunson at 47%, Wembanyama at 36% and Karl-Anthony Towns down to 14% after a quiet 11-point Game 3.
Nearly $290 million has been traded on the Finals winner market, reflecting how sharply sentiment has swung in a series where no team has ever lost the first two Finals games at home and still won the title.