EIA Warns OECD Oil Stocks Will Hit 2.3 Billion-Barrel Low as Iran War Cuts 11 Million bpd
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 9
EIA Warns OECD Oil Stocks Will Hit 2.3 Billion-Barrel Low as Iran War Cuts 11 Million bpd
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 9
Summary
OECD oil inventories are projected to drop to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, the lowest since EIA records began in 2003, as stockpiles are drained to cover lost Middle East supply.
The EIA said about 11 million barrels per day of regional output remains offline and assumed Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to pre-conflict levels until early 2027.
That drawdown is expected to keep crude prices elevated, with Brent spot prices averaging about $105 a barrel in June and July versus $91.60 in Tuesday's futures market.
High prices, tighter fuel availability and government conservation measures are now forecast to cut global oil demand by 1.1 million bpd in 2026, reversing the EIA's earlier call for a 200,000 bpd increase.
With oil reserves hitting record lows, is a global recession now inevitable?
Beyond high prices, will the Hormuz crisis permanently redraw the world's energy map?
Global Oil Inventories Plunge to Multi-Decade Lows: Economic Shockwaves from the 2026 Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Closure
Overview
The report highlights how the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused a significant portion of oil production to be shut-in, leading to a rapid fall in global oil inventories as countries struggle to meet existing demand. This extraordinary and unsustainable rate of consumption is pushing inventories toward multi-decade lows, with industry leaders warning of unheard-of inventory levels. While increased renewable diesel and biodiesel production may help keep some fuel inventories stable, the broader global oil supply remains critically depleted, resulting in soaring prices and immediate economic challenges worldwide.