Analysts Cut SpaceX IPO Value to $780 Billion as $250 Billion xAI Deal Raises Conflict Risks
Updated
Updated · Forbes · Jun 8
Analysts Cut SpaceX IPO Value to $780 Billion as $250 Billion xAI Deal Raises Conflict Risks
3 articles · Updated · Forbes · Jun 8
Summary
$780 billion is Morningstar's cash-flow valuation for SpaceX, far below the $1.5 trillion IPO target after the company folded in xAI through a $250 billion acquisition.
$81 billion in potential capital destruction could come from the AI and orbital data-center push alone, with Morningstar assigning a 43% chance to a "No Go" scenario for space-based compute centers.
xAI's disclosed finances underscore the concern: the AI segment posted $3.201 billion of 2025 revenue against $6.355 billion in operating losses, then lost $2.469 billion on $818 million of revenue in first-quarter 2026.
Elon Musk's control of both companies makes the merger a related-party transaction that was not conducted at arm's length, analysts said, leaving future IPO investors with limited power to challenge similar deals.
Starlink and launch services remain the core profit engine, while analysts say Grok and X have yet to show leading AI performance or durable commercial traction, making the IPO case heavily dependent on speculative growth.
SpaceX is preparing for an IPO, offering about 3% of its shares to public investors after reaching a private valuation of $1.5 trillion, including a $250 billion acquisition of an AI lab from its founder. This move signals a major shift in its financial landscape but also highlights a sharp divide between SpaceX’s ambitious valuation targets and more cautious independent analyst assessments. The anticipated IPO, with a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, creates significant debate about the company’s true worth and future prospects, reflecting both the excitement and uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s public debut.