Oil Holds Below $100 Despite 3-Month Hormuz Closure as China Cuts Imports by 5 Million Barrels
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jun 9
Oil Holds Below $100 Despite 3-Month Hormuz Closure as China Cuts Imports by 5 Million Barrels
3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jun 9
Summary
Brent briefly hit $98 on Monday as Israel and Iran traded missiles, then fell back below $93 on Tuesday, leaving crude under $100 even after more than three months of Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Roughly 5 million barrels a day of lower Chinese crude imports — plus drawdowns from global stockpiles — have offset nearly half the supply deficit caused by the closure and eased shortages across Asia.
Analysts say that stability rests on heavy inventory depletion, with U.S. reserves near two-decade lows and Europe also drawing down stocks as America ships record fuel and crude volumes abroad.
Summer demand could test that balance: refineries outside China typically raise output by about 4.5 million barrels a day, and any return of Chinese buying while the strait stays shut could tighten supply rapidly.
Traders warn the market has avoided the feared recessionary shock for now, but a closure lasting weeks longer may still trigger a sharp price spike.
Why did the worst oil supply shock in history fail to push crude prices past the predicted $200 mark?
With Iran now controlling a key global waterway, what new rules will govern the future of maritime energy trade?
Strategic reserves have provided a temporary fix, but what is the long-term plan to secure global energy supplies?
Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: Why Oil Prices Didn’t Hit $200—and What Comes Next for Global Energy Security
Overview
As of June 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains a vital but vulnerable chokepoint for global oil, with ongoing geopolitical tensions keeping oil prices high and markets on edge. Even after Iran paused strikes against Israel, the security situation stayed fragile, raising shipping costs and fueling concerns about supply disruptions. Traders and insurers remain cautious, as any interruption in the Strait could quickly tighten global oil markets. This persistent risk has led to elevated prices and increased costs for shipping, highlighting how instability in the region continues to impact the world’s energy supply and economic outlook.