JPMorgan Sees S&P 500 Swinging 3% on May Core CPI as Inflation Print Gains Outsize Weight
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 9
JPMorgan Sees S&P 500 Swinging 3% on May Core CPI as Inflation Print Gains Outsize Weight
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 9
Summary
Wednesday’s May CPI report could drive unusually large equity moves, with JPMorgan saying the S&P 500 may fall 2% to 3% if core inflation tops 0.35%.
A core reading of 0.25% to 0.3% month over month — around the 0.3% consensus — would likely leave the index in a narrower range of down 0.5% to up 0.75%.
A cooler print of 0.2% or less could lift the S&P 500 by 1.5% to 2%, as the bank says markets are treating this release as straightforwardly risk-on or risk-off.
JPMorgan said the stakes are higher because investors de-risked last week, volatility remains elevated and stocks have become more sensitive to bond-yield moves.
Core inflation has risen for three straight months even as headline CPI is expected to stay elevated from energy costs tied to the U.S.-Iran war.