Warsh Poised to Raise Rates at June 16-17 Fed Meeting as Trump Opposes Tightening
Updated
Updated · 24/7 Wall St. · Jun 8
Warsh Poised to Raise Rates at June 16-17 Fed Meeting as Trump Opposes Tightening
3 articles · Updated · 24/7 Wall St. · Jun 8
Summary
June 16-17 is shaping up as Kevin Warsh’s first hawkish Fed meeting, with strong jobs and inflation data making a hold or rate hike more likely than any cut Trump wants.
159.0 million nonfarm payrolls in May, 4% unemployment and $37.53 average hourly earnings point to a labor market still tight enough to keep services inflation under pressure.
129.6 core PCE in April, up from 126.1 a year earlier, and CPI rising to 333.0 from 325.3 in January show inflation accelerating into the meeting rather than cooling toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
4.17% on the 2-year Treasury, 4.55% on the 10-year and 5.01% on the 30-year suggest investors are already pricing a firmer path, while CME FedWatch implies roughly 60% odds of at least one hike this year.
Trump called higher rates unfair on Sunday, but with the policy rate still at 3.75% after cuts from 4.5% and first-quarter GDP growing at 2%, Warsh’s June statement and press conference will test Fed independence.