Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 9
US 2-Year Yield Signals Drop to 3.65%-3.75% as 4.201% Rise Forms Bearish Wedge
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 9

US 2-Year Yield Signals Drop to 3.65%-3.75% as 4.201% Rise Forms Bearish Wedge

2 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 9

Summary

  • The 2-year Treasury yield briefly hit 4.201% on Monday, but its daily chart now points to a possible break lower toward 3.65%-3.75%.
  • That bearish view rests on a rising wedge pattern—yields have kept climbing since the Iran war began, but within a tightening range that often precedes a downside move.
  • Momentum has also weakened: the RSI has failed to confirm new yield highs since late March, suggesting the recent rise is losing force.
  • Volatility tied to the Iran conflict clouds the signal, and a move above 4.30%-4.40% would indicate the uptrend is still intact.
  • For now, the chart suggests the broader decline in 2-year yields in place since October 2023 remains the dominant trend.

Insights

Can technical charts signal lower rates amid war, soaring oil prices, and persistent inflation?
How will new Fed leadership navigate conflicting pressures of high inflation and calls for lower rates?