Updated
Updated · ING Think · Jun 4
Dollar Gains Broadly as US-Iran Clashes Deepen and DXY Nears 100
Updated
Updated · ING Think · Jun 4

Dollar Gains Broadly as US-Iran Clashes Deepen and DXY Nears 100

3 articles · Updated · ING Think · Jun 4

Summary

  • Broad dollar demand strengthened after fresh US-Iran military exchanges and firm US data left the greenback the only clear FX winner, with analysts saying it is hard to argue against further gains.
  • ADP payrolls, ISM services and the Fed’s Beige Book all pointed to a resilient US economy, reinforcing a risk-off move that has pushed key pairs toward break levels.
  • EUR/USD is testing 1.160 and could slide to 1.150 before next week’s ECB meeting, even if the ECB still delivers a 25bp hike with a hawkish tone.
  • USD/JPY is pressing 160.0, USD/CAD 1.390 and DXY 100, with those breaks seen as likely unless Middle East diplomacy quickly improves sentiment.
  • The stronger dollar is also pressuring emerging-market trades such as Brazil’s real, though ING expects BRL support to re-emerge near 5.14 given high yields and Brazil’s energy-exporter status.

Insights

With the Iran war costing $25 billion, can the dollar's safe-haven status outlast the conflict's growing economic burden?
How will central banks fight war-fueled inflation without tipping indebted economies into a global recession?
Emergency oil reserves are dwindling. What is the global plan B if the Strait of Hormuz is fully blockaded?